VO2 Max as a Longevity Biomarker: What a 122,000-Person Study Found

Kim Berglin

Sep 23

2 min read

A look at why cardiorespiratory fitness keeps showing up as one of the strongest predictors of how long someone lives.

A Massive Treadmill Study Tied Fitness Directly to Mortality

A 2018 study in JAMA Network Open followed 122,007 adults who underwent treadmill exercise testing, tracking their fitness levels against long-term mortality, according to a research summary from DexaFit covering the findings. Adults in the top 25% of cardiorespiratory fitness had roughly 70% lower all-cause mortality risk than those in the bottom quartile.

Elite Fitness Kept Paying Off, With No Ceiling in Sight

Adults in the top 2.5% of fitness, described as elite performers, saw mortality risk drop by roughly 80% compared with the least fit group. Risk reduction kept climbing at the very highest fitness levels rather than leveling off, a pattern researchers hadn't expected going in.

Low Fitness Outweighed Several Familiar Risk Factors

Being unfit carried a mortality risk in this dataset comparable to or greater than smoking, diabetes, hypertension, or severe obesity taken individually. Sports medicine physician Dr. Andrew Jagim of Mayo Clinic described cardiorespiratory fitness as something "associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular disease, obesity, sleep apnea, metabolic syndrome and a number of other chronic health conditions, in addition to reduced risk for all causes of mortality."

Typical Fitness Ranges Show How Much Room Most People Have

VO2 max typically sits in the 20s (ml/kg/min) for sedentary adults, climbs into the 40s for moderately active people, reaches the 70s in elite endurance athletes, and tops out in the 80s to 90s for elite cross-country skiers, among the highest values ever recorded. Consistent aerobic training 3 to 4 times a week can raise VO2 max by 20% to 30% over 3 to 6 months, per Dr. Jagim's guidance to Mayo Clinic News Network, with beginners often seeing 10% to 15% gains within a few months.

Bottom Line

Cardiorespiratory fitness looks less like a nice-to-have and more like one of the most powerful levers available for long-term health, at least based on this dataset. Regular aerobic training, mixing steady effort with occasional harder intervals, remains the most reliable way to move the number in the right direction.

Our piece on grip strength as a longevity marker covers another simple, low-cost measure worth tracking alongside cardiorespiratory fitness.